No matter how much you feed a wolf, its eyes will always be on the forest, as the Estonian saying goes. In Estonian politics, this describes the phenomenon where some politicians constantly search for their ideology and, oddly enough, always find it in the forest where they are offered a slice of the power.
Today, everyone is talking about Raik and Stalnuhhin's unexpected partnership, but the phenomenon is far broader. Beyond the immediate grab for power, there is a cynical fight for Russian-speaking voters. This has been practiced for years—originally dominated by Edgar Savisaar's Center Party but, in recent years, joined by both EKRE and the Social Democrats.
For anyone familiar with Estonian history and who values Estonia's independence, the red line would be drawn at cooperation with individuals who still believe Estonia should be part of the Soviet Union, that Estonia was never occupied, and that Putin is actually a decent man. If a hunger for power blurs all boundaries, let us hope the next elections will address this karmic debt for such parties and politicians.
I am sure it will, as pandering to different voter groups with conflicting messages has never gone unpunished for long. Savisaar managed to navigate this somewhat successfully, charming both Estonian- and Russian-speaking voters, but no one else has achieved long-term success with it.
During my tenure as mayor of Kohtla-Järve, I was most often compared to Katri Raik. I always took this as a compliment. Strong women support and inspire one another, regardless of party or ideology, but they also criticize and admonish when necessary. Right now, it seems like the right time for the latter.
To my and many others' great dismay, Katri has decided to ally with a man who has not only called but continues to call the Estonian government fascists and nazis. At the press conference on Monday, he made his views about the Estonian Republic crystal clear by referring to it as the Estonian SSR.
This choice of words, which might appear as an accidental slip, reveals more than most Estonians would dare believe—Narva, Estonia's third-largest city, is set to be led by a man who seems to regard the Estonian Republic as a historical mistake, a temporary anomaly.
I sincerely hope Katri is strong enough to forgo the long-awaited opportunity to return as mayor, which has now almost accidentally landed in her lap, if its price nullifies her years of work, sweat and tears for Narva’s benefit.
Stalnuhhin’s decision to forego the chairmanship of Narva's city council changes nothing fundamentally. Among the two electoral alliances seeking to form a coalition, Stalnuhhin holds the upper hand. His ability to pull strings from the shadows certainly does not serve the interests of Narva residents, the Estonian public, or Katri herself.
As demonstrated by Eduard Odinets and Henri Kaselo in Kohtla-Järve, prioritizing personal ambitions above the interests of local residents and the Republic of Estonia turns one into a smiling puppet and a political corpse. Knowing what we know about Mihhail Stalnuhhin, perhaps we should take his own words seriously when he admitted at a press conference that at his age, one's mindset no longer changes.
It is extremely regrettable and deplorable that Raik and the Social Democrats are enabling an anti-Estonian element in Narva. Such a move, done purely for power, would be unthinkable even in the smallest municipalities, but the fact that Narva is Estonia's third-largest city makes it even more unacceptable.
Raik may claim that the coalition is in Narva's local interests, but the truth is that Narva is not an isolated island—it is an integral part of our country. Therefore, local interests cannot be separated from national ones. If power in Narva is wielded by individuals or groups whose past statements reveal deep antipathy toward the Estonian state and nationhood, this creates an irreconcilable and stark conflict with Estonia's national and patriotic interests.
In any case, this coalition casts serious doubts on the Social Democrats' alleged commitment to Estonia (and consequently its city governance steming from it). It is in no way in the interests of either the Estonian state or Narva itself for people who wish to distance Narva from Estonia ideologically to be in power in the city. Perhaps this is a strategic move for the Social Democrats, but in this case, their gain is clearly a loss for Estonia.
National issues are among the most important for Narva as a city. The city cannot be governed differently while saying that our country is still the Estonian SSR. Narva is an Estonian city and will remain so.
The proposed coalition does not demonstrate Estonia-mindedness and endangers the security of a border city of Estonia. The Social Democrats' (Katri Raik's) hunger for power reveal their inability to bring the strength of the Estonian state to Narva. Mihhail Stalnuhhin's desire for revenge against the current coalition confirms that the two power-seekers are willing to do whatever it takes, disregarding the interests of both the city and state.
The formation of such a coalition in Narva is a threat to the security of the Estonian state.
No compromises can be made at the expense of the independence of the Republic of Estonia. However, the coalition forming in Narva represents precisely such a compromise, where individuals who have expressed hostility towards all things Estonia-minded for decades are gaining power. It is astonishing and dangerous that Social Democrat Katri Raik, who has so far presented herself as a unifier of Western-oriented forces in Narva, has now decided to make a complete 180-degree turn.
Narva does not need a city government whose leading figures oppose the removal of Soviet monuments, renaming streets bearing the names of Red Army soldiers, and providing education in the Estonian language. Narva must become an Estonian city with Western leadership practices, leaving no room for food chains or Kremlin sympathies.
A distinctive feature of the emerging coalition is the need to explicitly state in the coalition agreement that the new city government intends to operate in accordance with Estonian state laws, cooperate with the government of the Republic of Estonia, and consider the government an important partner. Could anyone imagine such promises being made, for example, in a coalition agreement in Tartu?
The recent development that saw Mihhail Stalnuhhin withdraw his candidacy for the position of chair of Narva city council changes nothing fundamentally—the same group, aided by Katri Raik, still plans to take power. The assessments of the leadership of the Social Democratic Party regarding the situation in Narva have so far, unfortunately, been predictably mild— evidence of ideological politics that prioritize Estonia's interests and the well-being of Narva residents is nowhere to be seen.
Taking all this into account, we call on those who do not want to witness Narva sinking even deeper into Russian- and Soviet-mindedness in a year's time to join us and participate in the local elections.
The coalition between the Social Democrats and Mihhail Stalnuhhin in Narva raises several questions and alarming signals. Katri Raik has emphasized that the coalition is being created in the name of local interests, but if these interests endanger the fundamental principles of the Estonian state, one must ask: does this align with our democratic values?
Stalnuhhin has repeatedly expressed anti-state positions that contradict the independence and security of the Estonian state. Considering a coalition with someone who has openly criticized the core values of our state highlights a serious dilemma: can we separate local issues when they are closely tied to national sovereignty and security? No one should seriously believe anymore that local government elections are merely about local matters and have nothing to do with state politics. Today, the situation is entirely different.
What is at stake on the local government level is the largest education reform in our history—the transition to Estonian-language education across Estonia. It is a major concern that the coalition agreement planned by the new Narva coalition does not mention the transition to Estonian-language education at all. This is a dangerous signal. It leads to thoughts that the state may, in the future (also from a security perspective), need to intervene in local government matters and consider nationalizing schools in Narva.
As history has shown, we cannot underestimate how seemingly small political decisions can significantly impact our country's weight and position in important matters. Therefore, it is crucial for political forces, including the Social Democrats, to remain committed to our core values: independence and national interests. Raik's formation of a coalition in Narva with Stalnuhhin indicates a hunger for power. Stalnuhhin's belongs in the opposition. Estonia 200 will neither participate in nor support a coalition with Stalnuhhin.
It is not the Social Democrats planning a new coalition in Narva but rather Katri Raik's election coalition, in which Raik is the only Social Democrat. The creation of coalitions at the local level is not decided by the party leadership under internal democracy rules, but since what is happening in Narva has caused justified strong reactions both in the public and among Social Democrats, the party leadership discussed Katri’s case at length on Tuesday evening.
The leadership did not support Katri's decisions, but it was pointed out that Stalnuhhin has withdrawn from running for the position of chair of Narva city council. Neither Jüri Ratas nor Mihhail Kõlvart managed to sideline Stalnuhhin in the past.
It was also noted that Narva is undoubtedly a more Estonia-minded, stronger, and safer city if it is led by Katri Raik as mayor. If she leads Narva, the transition to Estonian-language education will continue, and there will be much less risk of radical sentiments taking hold in the border city. If she takes on this tough challenge, she must prove herself and demonstrate that Narva is becoming more of an Estonian city, which is in the interests of both Narva residents and the Estonian state. Unfortunately, most political parties have given up on Narva.
This coalition is being formed solely in the interests of the parties involved. The Social Democrats have once again revealed their fundamental nature—gaining power at any cost. However, empowering anti-Estonian political forces and offering them legitimacy is not in the interests of Narva residents. Raik, as a member of the Social Democratic Party board and a former minister of the interior, should understand and take it into consideration.
In this political reality and combination, it is time to consider whether Läänemets and the Social Democrats should continue leading the Ministry of the Interior, as the conflict of interest is becoming increasingly apparent. There is a real danger that the party's interests will increasingly take precedence over Estonia's security and national interests, turning these into a battleground for political intrigues and intra-coalition deal-making.
Undoubtedly, Russian intelligence services are rubbing their hands together with glee, and alongside active cross-border smuggling of cheap goods, other instructions are likely being shared with their local collaborators on how to use this excellent situation to increase tensions and fuel conflict
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