Estonia should support strengthening European countries' defense readiness and lead by example by increasing defense spending and quickly eliminating the capability gaps that have accumulated over the years. There are plenty of countries in NATO that are freeloading.
The US president's pressure to increase defense spending is justified. This was very helpful during Trump's previous term. European countries should start taking responsibility instead of conveniently delegating it to the United States.
They should have stepped out of their comfort zone right after the occupation of Crimea. Yet, many continued doing business with Russia as if nothing had happened. In Estonia, this even happened at the prime minister's level, which is why we have a moral obligation to help strengthen the sanctions regime against Russia.
Estonia should also maintain the best possible relations with the United States and avoid reckless statements like those from Riho Terras, who called for sanctions against the United States. This case, along with the constant attacks on the United States by Marko Mihkelson and other coalition politicians, proves that Estonia's foreign policy needs a dose of realism, which has been lost under the current government.
Fundamentally, Estonia's foreign and defense policy will not change, as Estonia has always believed that Europe should contribute more to defense policy. However, current international developments give more weight to our arguments.
Broadly speaking, we have two possible strategies to protect Estonia's way of life as it currently exists.
The first strategy is to protect European unity. This means we do not introduce topics into European debates that could challenge a potential consensus. Instead, we support initiatives leading to the next package of sanctions, the use of Russia's frozen assets to support Ukraine, and maintaining a firm stance until Russia withdraws from occupied territories. Adjusting budget rules regarding defense spending would also be a relevant topic for Estonia in the current situation.
The second strategy assumes that European unity is too slow and uncertain, meaning we must pursue a more regional approach to defense cooperation. This is not a new idea, as regional defense cooperation already exists.
We do not need to overreact. For instance, increasing our defense spending to 10 percent would be useless if our neighbors' spending remained significantly lower. Our defense budget should be high enough to serve as a motivating example for the West but also as low as possible in a situation where our actual defense relies on cooperation with our closest allies.
In practical terms, this means understanding that Estonia's defense spending in the coming years should remain above the US level (3.38 percent) but does not necessarily have to exceed Poland's planned level for next year (5 percent).
Personally, I consider it a priority to demonstrate the Baltic Sea states' continued readiness to resist Russia's imperialist attempt to restore «business as usual» by backing Ukraine in negotiations with concrete commitments and actions.
The price Ukraine has paid—especially over the past three years—to defend itself and the Western world against Russia and the Axis of Evil is enormous. It seems Ukraine will have to continue paying.
Ukraine generously offers its natural resources and economic base but understandably wants security guarantees from the West in return. These guarantees must ensure Ukraine's independence and deter Russia. Ukraine wants no repeat of the aggression, and likely no one else except the Axis of Evil countries does either.
The victim of aggression has already paid and continues to pay a price that far exceeds the hundreds of billions of euros it has received in aid over the years.
Security guarantees for Ukraine, which Putin's Russia seeks to block or water down, must be commensurate with the price already paid and Ukraine's future contribution to European security. It is unthinkable that Ukraine would be stripped bare and left out in the cold.
Therefore, given US President Donald Trump's stance, Estonia must call on Europe to provide Ukraine with massive military aid as quickly as possible. German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock has already raised this issue, and discussions of a 700-billion-euro package are circulating.
Ukraine must receive strong air defense, including protection against drones, and a powerful capability for counterstrikes with the longest-range missiles and attack drones possible. Control over its airspace and the ability to launch counterattacks will deter Russia. More weapons and ammunition for Ukraine should be purchased from the United States.
Additionally, Estonia must lead by example and urge European allies to spend at least 3.5 percent of GDP on defense, with at least half of that going to procurement and investment. Europe's defense industry must be rapidly ramped up through large-scale and long-term contracts.
Preparations should also begin for deploying peacekeeping forces to Ukraine, even without the United States. Ukraine's accession to the European Union must be accelerated. Ukraine belongs in Europe, not in Putin's grasp.
Estonia must further deepen defense cooperation with the Baltic Sea region and NATO's nuclear powers. Our defense policy is fundamentally correct, but there is room for improvement.
For instance, considering Ukraine's experience, the role of drones in a war with Russia must be taken much more seriously. Estonia must also strengthen its naval and air defense capabilities. Raising defense spending toward 5 percent would enable the creation and enhancement of several critical military capabilities.
A lasting and just peace in Europe is possible only if Russia suffers a strategic defeat in the war of aggression it has initiated. Any talk of peace that does not consider Ukraine's sovereignty, territorial integrity, and NATO membership as a security guarantee is only appealing and encouraging to Russia.
Making deals with the aggressor in hopes of achieving peace is an illusion and would come at a great cost to all of us. Ukraine wants peace, just as we do. But peace at any price is not a solution.
That is why it is pointless to discuss peacekeeping forces now when the priority is helping Ukraine seize the initiative on the battlefield and gain a strong position for potential negotiations. To achieve this, European countries must increase military aid to Ukraine, particularly in air defense, artillery, and ammunition supplies.
Estonia must continue its steadfast foreign policy line in supporting Ukraine's victory strategy and convincing allies not to fall for Russia's influence operations. Only after a decisive turn on the battlefield can we hope to move toward establishing a just peace.
For years, Europe has indulged in wishful thinking that if a serious crisis arose, the Americans would not abandon us. Meanwhile, funds that could have been allocated to defense capabilities have been spent on ideological goals, primarily the green transition.
Why should US taxpayers be willing to invest in Europe's security if Europe itself does not? The fact that Donald Trump has shaken Europe out of this slumber is inconvenient in today's security situation but certainly not unexpected. Even during his previous term, he urged Europeans to fulfill their commitments.
So yes, Europe must step up. However, it is unlikely that pan-European summits will yield tangible results. When more than ten parties are at the table, the outcome is often just another catchy slogan.
Crises have shown us that despite shared values, every country ultimately acts based on its own interests. Most importantly, we do not yet know what direction Germany will take after its upcoming elections.
Therefore, our security strategy should focus primarily on bilateral negotiations between allied nations. Only this way can we quickly determine each country's real interests and potential for cooperation.
In Estonia, we must also abandon wishful thinking and outdated ideologies. While Estonia has been a good financial contributor to defense, our government still prioritizes security and people's well-being far below the green transition and budget balance.